🎯 Kalshi Intelligence

Gold Prediction Analysis // End-of-Day Contract Signals // inteloverinsanity.com

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Snapshot

⚠ Academic / analytical tool only — not financial advice. Bet sizing $5–$25. Gold is harder to model than single data-point events; being right 55–60% of the time with positive EV is the target. Never bet what you cannot lose.

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Refresh to generate today's prediction analysis.

Gold: — DXY: — WTI: — VIX: — Est. close: — Range: — Vol: —

Core Probability Matrix & EV Calculator

Model probability that gold closes ABOVE each level at 5:00 PM EDT. Click any row to calculate expected value for that contract.

End-of-day brackets — 5:00 PM EDT settlement (Pyth oracle)

Higher probability = more likely gold closes above that level. The ~50% bracket = model's expected close price.

Refresh to generate probability brackets.

Expected Value Calculator

← Click a bracket to select it

Kalshi ask price for YES contract:

¢ per contract

Model prob

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EV / contract

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Select bracket + enter Kalshi price

EV = (model_prob × $1.00) − contract_cost
Positive → YES underpriced · Negative → YES overpriced (NO has edge)
Rule of thumb: need |EV| ≥ 5¢ to overcome Kalshi fee drag

P1 Today's Catalyst Calendar

Refresh to load scheduled catalysts.

P2 Active Transmission Chains

Which causal chains are driving gold today. Ranked by current importance.

Refresh to assess active chains.

P3 Weekly Outlook

Refresh to generate weekly outlook.

P4 Geopolitical & Breaking News

Refresh to load geopolitical assessment.

Kalshi Intelligence v1 · inteloverinsanity.com · Gold Macro Matrix · Gold Methodology · Academic analysis only — not financial advice